Method for predicting future driving conditions for a vehicle

ABSTRACT

In a method for predicting future driving conditions for a vehicle (1), sensor data (2) are gathered while the vehicle (1) is traveling on a route. A position of the vehicle (1) is also determined. The gathered data are associated with the determined vehicle position. A map (9) is created depending on the associated data. When the route is traveled again, the map is updated in real time depending on associated data from the repeated traveling. Finally, a prediction of future driving conditions is obtained based on the determined vehicle position and the map (9).

This application is a Divisional of copending application Ser. No.16/477,596, filed on Jul. 12, 2019, which is the National Phase under 35U.S.C. § 371 of International Application No. PCT/EP2018/050569, filedon Jan. 10, 2018, which claims the benefit under 35 U.S.C. § 119(a) topatent application Ser. No. 17/151,441.7, filed in Europe on Jan. 13,2017, all of which are hereby expressly incorporated by reference intothe present application.

TECHNICAL FIELD

The invention relates to a method for predicting future drivingconditions for a vehicle. The invention furthermore relates to a methodfor controlling a vehicle.

PRIOR ART

The power required by a vehicle during operation is dependent on variousfactors. In addition to a two-dimensional route profile, the topography(the elevation profile of the route) and the speed profile along theroute are of particular importance in this case. The latter results forexample from the road conditions, speed limits and the presence oftraffic lights, crossings, rotaries or crosswalks. Besides the drivemotors, further loads (for example for the air conditioning system, thelighting system, etc.) also additionally require energy.

The available power and the on-board energy store have to be adapted tothe required power. Energy stores and

buffer stores, such as electric batteries or capacitors, need to besized and charged accordingly.

If the route to be traveled by a vehicle or a next section of thejourney is known in advance, it is possible to take various measures,which are performed in a location-dependent and scheduled manner, tominimize the overall energy consumption, a maximum required power, arequired capacity of an energy store and/or a loading of a drive or ofan energy store. The provisioning and/or operating costs of the vehicleare thereby lowered, and the lifetime of said components is increased.Possible measures to be taken are charging or loading energy stores,actuating a transmission, complying with an energy-efficient speedprofile or selecting a drive to be used in the case of vehicles havingseveral drives (in particular hybrid vehicles).

The route to be traveled is often not known in advance. In some cases,however, vehicles travel repeatedly on the same routes. On the one hand,this applies to vehicles that are bound to a specific travel route (forexample rail vehicles, trolleybuses) or have to serve a particular route(for example buses on a scheduled service). On the other hand, this alsoapplies to vehicles that are used to travel regularly on the same routesindependently of such specifications, for example for commuting betweenhome and the workplace.

The article “Predictive Reference Signal Generator for Hybrid ElectricVehicles” (D. Ambühl, L. Guzzella), IEEE Transactions on VehicularTechnology Vol. 58, No. 9, November 2009 targets the energy managementof hybrid vehicles, that is to say vehicles having a combustion engineand an electric engine, in particular in situations where such vehiclesregularly cover the same route. The subject of the article is a drive inwhich the combustion engine and the electric engine act on the sameshaft, such that their torques add together. The aim is to minimize fuelconsumption, it being ensured, by defining limits for the state ofcharge (SoC), that the battery is not excessively loaded.

The regulation comprises a prediction module that draws data, interalia, from a navigation assistance system, and a module, controlled bythe state of charge of the battery as a state variable, for generatingan equivalence factor that indicates the torque distribution between theelectric engine and the combustion engine.

However, complete information necessary for the desired optimization isoften lacking; in any case, not all of this information forms part ofthe data that are usually available from navigation assistance systems.Navigation assistance systems are additionally not generally designedfor means of transport such as for example buses or trolleybuses, andthey are accordingly not able to make reliable predictions in relationto expected speeds, stopping times, etc. Maps containing extensiveinformation content in relation to the traveled routes are thereforerequired for a reliable prediction.

Various approaches for generating maps are known. A first is what isknown as “collaborative mapping”. In this case, data (navigation dataand other sensor data) are gathered from mobile terminals of voluntaryusers and processed centrally offline. Since the data originate from amultiplicity of different terminals, the quality and uniformity is notnecessarily guaranteed. Manual post-processing is usually required. Asecond approach uses a multiplicity of identically designed devices byway of which measurements are performed in the region to be mapped.However, using them and evaluating the measurement data offline iscomplex. A third approach uses self-driving robots or automobiles thatgather sensor data. In this case too, gathering the data is complex andthe map is generated offline, that is to say after the data havefinished being gathered, typically on a central computer.

PRESENTATION OF THE INVENTION

The object of the invention is to provide a method, belonging to thetechnical field mentioned at the outset, that allows a reliableprediction of future driving conditions for a vehicle.

The achievement of the object is defined by the features of claim 1.According to the invention, the method comprises the following steps:

-   a) gathering sensor data while the vehicle is traveling on a route;-   b) determining a position of the vehicle;-   c) associating the gathered data with the determined vehicle    position;-   d) creating a map depending on the associated data;-   e) traveling the route again, the map being updated in real time    depending on associated data from the repeated traveling; and-   f) obtaining a prediction of future driving conditions based on the    determined vehicle position and the map.

The current position of the vehicle may be determined in particularusing a global positioning system (GNSS, such as for example GPS,GLONASS, Galileo, Beidou etc.). The sensor data are generated by sensorson board the vehicle, these being able to be part of the electronics ofthe vehicle that are present in any case and/or to be additionallyinstalled. The sensor data comprise for example the driving speed or thecurrent energy consumption. They are associated with the determinedvehicle position in the context of the method, and finally integratedinto the map. The map ultimately associates one or more parameters withpositions of the vehicle, these parameters being able to correspond tothe gathered sensor data and/or to be variables derived therefrom. Themap created in accordance with the method according to the inventiondoes not cover a continuous extended two-dimensional region, but ratherjust locations that correspond to (previous) journeys of the vehicle, itbeing possible in principle to supplement the map with further elementsthat originate from another source, for example from a databasecontaining map data that have been obtained from other vehicles. Thissupplementation may take place at the beginning, within the meaning ofinitialization of the map, or only when a map has already been createdaccording to the invention.

A real-time update in the present case means that the map is present inupdated form at the latest after completing the route, and no processingperformed at a time after this is thus necessary. However, the updatepreferably takes place step-by-step during travel, such that thatsection of the map that corresponds to the already-traveled section ofthe route is essentially always already present in updated form.

The method according to the invention allows the map to be createdautomatically. In principle, there is no need for a preliminary externaldata acquisition. If the vehicle has an on-board apparatus that obtainsthe sensor data and data for determining the vehicle position (or thedetermined vehicle position) and processes them in a manner according tothe invention, the map is automatically generated for the traveled routeand automatically updated on the basis of new associated data upon eachrepeated journey. As a result, it is automatically adjusted to changedconditions (diversions, roadworks, etc.), and possible errors arereduced due to improved statistics. The method for creating and forupdating the map is thus self-learning.

The method according to the invention, by gathering suitable sensor dataand storing suitable parameters, is able to take into considerationcircumstances that are specific to the vehicle that is used and to thepurpose of use. Thus, for example, in the case of public means oftransport, the specific driving dynamics of the vehicle, typicalstopping times, the volume of passengers (and therefore the respectivecarrying capacity), the volume of traffic on particular route sections(and possibly at particular times of day) etc. are automatically takeninto consideration, if for example speed and power data are measured andstored in the map. As vehicle-specific aspects are already also takeninto consideration when gathering the data, it may become unnecessary todefine a model of the vehicle in order to calculate the power requiredby the specific vehicle in a particular route section, for example fromtopographical data.

The method is thus particularly well suited to public means oftransport, for example buses or trolleybuses. It may however also beused in connection with other road or rail vehicles for passenger orfreight transport.

The method according to the invention is particularly well suited topredicting future driving conditions for vehicles that travel onpredefined routes (for example buses, service buses or the like). Themethod is however also useful if the same route is traveled only fromtime to time and is not predefined but has rather been selectedaccording to requirements. This is the case for example for passengervehicles of private households. According to statistics, more than halfof journeys are covered thereby on the same roads, since thedestinations such as workplace, gymnasium, shopping facility, holidaydestination, etc. are always roughly the same. As early as on onejourney, it is possible to use the method to obtain information that isuseful for predicting future driving conditions and therefore forcontrolling the vehicle when the route is traveled again.

The map advantageously comprises location-dependent power data. “Powerdata” are understood here to mean those data that are relevant to thepower drawn by the loads of the vehicle (in particular drive motors).These include direct power data, such as current power consumption(electric power) or fuel consumption, and indirect power data that allowthe power to be predicted in combination with other parameters, forexample the engine speed, the driving speed, a measured incline, etc.

Updating the map advantageously comprises consolidating data fromvarious journeys. In each further journey, the map is thus improved, andthe positions and associated parameters are thus adjusted byincorporating the data that have already been acquired and associatedearlier and the new associated data.

As an alternative, in the update, the positions previously stored in themap and/or the parameters or certain portions thereof may be replaced bythe current values.

The gathered sensor data advantageously comprise location-relevantinformation. To determine the vehicle position, the gathered sensor data(or some thereof), on the one hand, and data from a global positioningsystem for determining the vehicle position, on the other hand, are thenapplied and combined. This processing is able to be implementedparticularly well using a Kalman filter. Since not only thenoise-impacted data from the global positioning system are applied, butrather additional sensor data as well, this results in improved positiondetermination. It is readily understood that not all of the gatheredsensor data have to enter the Kalman filter, but rather only those datathat make a contribution to improving the location determination.Preferably, in each case not only a vehicle position is determined, butrather also a direction of travel (orientation) of the vehicle at thisvehicle position.

Taking into consideration the further sensor data is highly advantageousparticularly when the global positioning system does not deliver any ordelivers only very inaccurate information, for example in tunnels orwhen shaded by tall buildings.

Instead of the Kalman filter, other methods for what is known as “deadreckoning” may be applied, for example other filters such as particlefilters (sequential Monte-Carlo methods) or the like.

As an alternative, the position determination takes place solely on thebasis of data from the global positioning system or on the basis ofthese data and for example data from an existing map independent of thesystem according to the invention (for example of a navigationassistance system).

The associated data advantageously comprise a vehicle orientation and avehicle speed. These data are useful for further updating the map andfor making predictions, and they are additionally easily able to bederived on the basis of the available sensor and positioning systemsignals. Further data may be associated besides these data.

In a first variant of the method according to the invention, theassociated data represent normally distributed variables, a standarddeviation being stored in the map in addition to an average of therespective variables. This simplifies both the consolidation of aplurality of data from various journeys and the making of predictions.Other distributions and characteristic parameters may also be applied.

In a second variant of the method according to the invention, theassociated data are in each case stored in the map, preferably providedwith an indication of time and date. An additional datum is thus storedper journey and parameter. This gives additional degrees of freedom whenreading predictive data from the map. It becomes possible for example totake into consideration only data points that relate to a certain timeinterval or a certain time of day or season, or to exclude data pointsthat are associated with another bus route. Furthermore, errors causedby the convergence of the distribution are avoided by a predefineddistribution.

Both in the first and in the second variant, the data may be associatedwith a plurality of classes, for example times of day, days of the weekor seasons, such that the data from the relevant class are able to beapplied to the subsequent prediction.

The sensor data preferably comprise speeds of a right-hand wheel and ofa left-hand wheel, and a rate of change of the vehicle orientation iscalculated from the speeds. Such speed data are usually recorded by thevehicle electronics and are available via a standardized bus (forexample CAN bus). The speeds may be present in absolute form or else asdifferential speeds in relation to the speed of the respective axle. Ineach case, a difference between the wheel speed and the axle speeddelivers information about changes of direction.

It has been found that the relative speeds of the wheels on the frontaxle are particularly well suited to the further processing in thecontext of the method according to the invention.

The map is preferably depicted by a directed graph, wherein associateddata are assigned to each node of the graph. The node is thus defined byits spatial position and the assigned data (for example power-relateddata, direction of travel etc.). The depiction as a directed graph isoptimally adjusted to the route traveled (multiple times) in the contextof the method according to the invention. In contrast to other forms ofdepiction, for example in a fixedly predefined grid network, therepresentation by a graph has the advantage that this adjusts far moreflexibly to the actual routes: In city centers, the road density ishigh, which requires a compact grid, which would then be far toodetailed for other sections in the surrounding area. The graph does notencounter such problems.

When the route is traveled again each time, the graph is updated, thatis to say the spatial position and/or the data assigned to the nodes areadjusted, and new nodes are generated or existing nodes are removed orcombined. The route ultimately corresponds to a sequence of nodes eachdirectly connected to one another, along the connecting edges. In thisrespect, the start point of the route, which is represented by a node ofthe graph, and the end point of the route, which is represented byanother node or (in the case of a round trip) the same node, areconnected to one another by a path in the directed graph. The graph maycontain branches that correspond to actual branches in the road or railsystem or that have occurred due to measurement inaccuracies (andtherefore possibly disappear again in a later journey). In the case of aroute that is traveled in both directions, both directions of travel arerepresented by different nodes and edges, so that direction oftravel-dependent influences (for example inclines/gradients) are able tobe recorded. To this end, it may be expedient in particular to associatean orientation of the vehicle with the individual nodes.

The number of recorded journeys on the corresponding route section maybe associated with each edge. This is equivalent to a weighting of thecorresponding edges.

In one preferred embodiment of the method, for each new set ofassociated data, depending on a distance from a last visited node of thegraph and on content of a data buffer, it is determined whether

a) the set of associated data is added to the data buffer, whetherb) the set of associated data is added to the last visited node, orwhetherc) new nodes are generated.

A set of associated data specifically comprises indications as to thevehicle position (for example longitude and latitude) and the dataassociated with the vehicle position.

In variant c), in this case, only one new node or a plurality of newnodes may be generated at the same time.

The procedure according to variant a) takes place when the distancebetween the determined vehicle position and the position associated withthe last visited node falls below a certain predefined value (sampledistance), which occurs for example when stationary or on a very slowjourney. It is assumed in this case that the set of associated datashould ultimately be added to the last visited node. Since it is not yetestablished whether yet more data are likewise added to the last visitednode, the buffer storage takes place in the data buffer.

The procedure according to variant b) thus takes place when the distanceexceeds the predefined value and the data buffer contains at least oneentry. If a plurality of entries are present, appropriate averaging isperformed before the set is added to the last visited node.

If the distance is ultimately greater than the predefined value but thebuffer is empty, a new node is generated. This is then added to the setof associated data.

By way of the abovementioned steps, the data initially associated with atime are each associated with spatial positions. Data from a pluralityof journeys on the route are thus able to be better combined.

Advantageously, when a predefined maximum distance from the last visitednode is exceeded, at least two new nodes are generated, wherein a set ofinterpolated data is associated with a first of the at least two newnodes. This avoids an excessively great distance between neighboringnodes, namely when the position determination of the vehicle takes placeat a predefined time interval and the vehicle speed is relatively high.Even when the map is first created in the first journey, a sufficientnumber of nodes to achieve the desired spatial resolution areessentially additionally generated.

Preferably, depending on the determined vehicle position and the map, aprediction of future location-dependent parameters on the traveled routeis made, wherein the prediction is made starting from a node of thedirected graph that corresponds to the determined vehicle position.Parameters of interest are namely those that are relevant to a requireddrive power (for example direct power data, speeds or the like). Theparameters may be part of the data associated with the nodes orvariables derived therefrom.

The prediction preferably extends over a prediction range that covers amultiplicity of nodes of the directed graph, wherein, in the event thatthe prediction range extends beyond a branch of the directed graph,nodes of a plurality of branch portions adjoining the branch are takeninto consideration to make the prediction. This allows forecasting, evenif it is not known what branch portion the vehicle will follow in thefurther course of the route. A plurality of branch portions may be takeninto consideration in various ways: By way of example, averaging maythus take place over the various branch portions. However, it is alsopossible to initially determine values for all of the branch portionstaken into consideration, and to apply an outstanding value (for exampleminimum, maximum or median) for the further calculation. If for examplethe power required in a particular section is predicted in order todetermine a minimum state of charge of a battery, it may be expedient toapply that branch portion that has the highest energy requirement inorder to ensure that the energy stored in the battery is sufficient ineach case.

A new prediction is preferably made only when the prediction range of aprediction that has already been made does not cover at least a minimumroute section starting from the determined vehicle position. Otherwise,a prediction that has already been made continues to be used. It is thusnot necessary to make a new prediction when reaching each new node, butrather only at some of the nodes. The computational burden is therebyable to be minimized.

A new prediction is advantageously made starting from a node that issituated before a branch in the directed graph if the node correspondingto the determined vehicle position is situated in a predefined distancerange after this branch.

Specifically, immediately after a branch, it is often not possible, forexample due to positioning inaccuracies, to determine without doubtwhich branch portion the vehicle is following. If then, after reaching anode that corresponds to a branch, a new prediction is made immediately,this still relates only to the established but possibly incorrect branchportion of the graph. Other branch portions for which there is likewisea not insignificant probability that the vehicle is following them areimmediately eliminated from the prediction. If the established branchportion is not correct, this results in incorrect predictions. If newpredictions are made only when a certain distance range has been coveredsince the last branch, such incorrect predictions are largely able to beavoided.

If, in the predefined distance range after a branch, the existingprediction no longer covers the minimum route section, a new predictionis expediently generated, starting from the node that constitutes thebranch (or a node that is positioned in front of the branch and is at ashort distance therefrom). This extends the covered route section and atthe same time ensures that the further possible alternatives concerningthe further route continue to be taken into consideration.

The method according to the invention for predicting future drivingconditions is advantageously used in a method for controlling a vehicle.In this case, the control takes place using a map that has beengenerated by the method according to the invention.

The control method is in particular suitable for vehicles that compriseat least one electric drive motor. Such a vehicle comprises for exampletwo (or more) different power sources. One of these may be a storagebattery that is able to be charged with a corresponding energy supplyand allows autonomous driving operation of the vehicle at least onpartial routes.

The control makes it possible, inter alia:

-   a) to ensure a sufficient state of charge of the storage battery for    the route to be managed;-   b) to optimize the state of charge in relation to an optimum    lifetime;-   c) to minimize the overall energy requirement; and/or-   d) to control further loads (for example heating system, ventilation    system, air conditioning system) in a controlled manner depending on    the power requirement of the drive motors.

The control method may however also be used in vehicles that have acombustion engine or an electric engine having only one power source.When applied in trucks, for example, relevant information for optimumspeed control on hilly terrain is provided, such as for exampleelevation indications with regard to the route ahead. What is known as“adaptive cruise control” varies the speed within a certain range whendriving with cruise control, and thereby allows energy to be saved. Byway of example, the speed is slightly increased when going downhill inorder to absorb more of the potential energy that would normally have tobe “braked”. Before the truck enters a route section that leadsdownhill, which is able to be established through the map generated bythe method according to the invention, the speed may thus be slightlyreduced so as then to be able to absorb even more of the potentialenergy during downhill travel.

In a further application in connection with passenger vehicles, relevantinformation for controlling “real driving” emissions is obtained.Predictive information specifically allows optimized regulation ofcombustion engines and exhaust gas after-treatment systems. By way ofexample, regenerating a fully loaded particle filter during urbandriving consumes additional fuel in order to increase the exhaust gastemperature. On the freeway, however, the engine runs at higher load andthe exhaust gas temperature is already high enough for the particlefilter to begin regenerating on its own. Using the predictiveinformation from the map, the regeneration of the particle filter isthus able to be deferred from urban driving to freeway driving undersome circumstances.

The map may in particular be used in an optimization method that takesinto consideration the entire driving cycle or essential parts thereof.

In one preferred application, the vehicle is a trolleybus having astorage battery for the buffer storage of electrical energy. Thetrolleybus may draw driving energy directly from the overhead line orfrom the storage battery. This makes it possible, inter alia, to travelon network sections that are not provided with an overhead line. Thestorage batteries may be recharged during travel (from the overheadline) or when stationary (station, depot).

The vehicle may be controlled directly and automatically or elseindirectly. Said control may in particular comprise the followingmeasures, on their own or in combination:

-   i) automatic selection of a drive to be used or of a power source    used for a drive,-   ii) charge control for a storage battery,-   iii) automatic switching of a transmission,-   iv) outputting of driver assistance information.

Further advantageous embodiments and combinations of features of theinvention become apparent from the following detailed description andthe patent claims in their entirety.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

In the drawings, which are used to explain the exemplary embodiment:

FIG. 1 shows a schematic illustration of one application of the methodaccording to the invention;

FIG. 2 shows a schematic illustration of the structure of the positionestimator;

FIG. 3 shows a flowchart of the creation of the map;

FIG. 4A, B show a schematic illustration of the map of a trajectoryleading through a tunnel before and after a correction step; and

FIG. 5 shows a schematic illustration of the prediction of futuredriving conditions.

In principle, identical parts are provided with the same reference signsin the figures.

Ways of Implementing the Invention

One embodiment and one application of the method according to theinvention are described in detail below. It relates to buses forpassenger transport, in particular on a scheduled service, namely busesthat comprise at least one electric drive motor and have at least twopower sources (for example a driving battery and an overhead linesupply) and/or, in addition to the electric drive motor, have yetanother drive motor using another drive technology (for example acombustion engine) (what are known as hybrid electric buses).

Modern passenger buses 1 comprise a series of sensors 3 that areconnected to microcontrollers. Said microcontrollers communicate withone another over what is known as a CAN bus 7 (controller area networkbus). Essentially all measured sensor data 2 and variables calculatedtherefrom are able to be accessed via this bus. This serves inter aliafor diagnostic purposes in the case of faults with the vehicle.

To create the map, as illustrated schematically in FIG. 1, sensorsignals 2 from the sensors 3 available in the bus 1 in any case and GPSsignals 5 are evaluated. Signals from the sensors 3 and from the GPSreceiver 4 are received by an on-board computer 6 running a program thatcreates the map automatically during the journey, as described below,and updates it in a self-learning manner (if the same route section istraveled multiple times). In one variant, the computer may be arrangedso as to be stationary and connected to a local communication device onboard the bus online via a data connection.

The computer has access to a database 8 in which position data (vehiclelocation, vehicle orientation, timestamp) and application-specific dataare stored. These data, in their entirety, form the map 9. Newlyarriving data, where expedient, are combined with the existing data.Specifically, a combination is displayed when a route section alreadycovered by the map 9 is traveled again. This reduces the memoryrequirement and facilitates the evaluation, that is to say the use ofthe created map 9 for control purposes.

The creation of the map 9 comprises two main steps. First of all, thesensor data 2 and GPS data 5 are combined in order to obtain an optimumposition estimation for the vehicle. To this end, as described in detailfurther below, a Kalman filter is used. In a second step, the actual map9 is then created or completed. The program for processing the obtaineddata is designed in modular form, such that the first module (positionestimation) and the second module (map creation) are easily able to bereplaced when necessary.

For the described method according to the invention, only a few sensorsignals 2 are used that are generally available in modern passengerbuses, namely:

-   -   the relative speed of the front left-hand wheel in km/h (that is        to say the speed difference between the front left-hand wheel        and the front axle);    -   the relative speed of the front right-hand wheel in km/h (that        is to say the speed difference between the front right-hand        wheel and the front axle);    -   the relative speed of the rear left-hand wheel in km/h (that is        to say the speed difference between the rear left-hand wheel and        the rear axle);    -   the relative speed of the rear right-hand wheel in km/h (that is        to say the speed difference between the rear right-hand wheel        and the rear axle);    -   the absolute speed of the vehicle, measured at the front axle in        km/h; and    -   the current rotational speed of the drive shaft of the drive        motor in rpm.

The GPS signals 5 are standardized. In the context of the methodaccording to the invention, the following data are required:

-   -   the latitude of the vehicle in degrees;    -   the longitude of the vehicle in degrees;    -   the elevation (above sea level) of the vehicle in meters;    -   the speed of the vehicle in km/h; and    -   the direction of travel of the vehicle in degrees.

Both the sensor signals 2 and the GPS signals 5 are impacted by noiseand therefore have to be filtered. Use may in this case be made of thefact that both sets of signals comprise position information or make itpossible to determine position information by using a state observer, inthe present case a Kalman filter, to combine the signals. Thecorresponding method is described further below.

The result of the filter is a continuous stream of position estimationsthat describe the spatial positioning of the vehicle as a function oftime. New position estimations are generated and output for example at aconstant rate of once per second. The position estimation ultimatelycomprises the following elements:

-   -   the global position in a Cartesian coordinate system (easting,        northing);    -   the elevation above sea level;    -   the orientation of the vehicle;    -   a flag that indicates whether satellite navigation data were        used for position determination (these are not available for        example in a tunnel);    -   the time;    -   the date;    -   the geodesic datum in relation to the global position; and    -   the projection in relation to the global position.

In addition to these position estimation elements, further parametersmay be associated with each estimation, namely the drive power, thecurrent fuel flow, the required power for further loads on the vehicle,the external temperature, etc.

The map stored in the database consists of a set of data points that arereferred to as nodes. As is conventional in graph theory, these nodesare connected to one another by edges. Nodes that have exactly two edgesconstitute waypoints of a trail. Nodes having three or more edgescorrespond to branches. Nodes that are connected only to exactly oneedge are dead ends, start points or endpoints. The set of all of thenodes and edges forms the graph that corresponds to the map.

Roads are often traveled in both directions. It is important for thedescribed application to distinguish between the directions of travel,that is to say to know on which side of the road and in which directionthe vehicle is moving. To this end, a direction of travel is associatedwith all of the edges, and the graph is thus directed. More precisely,this is a simple digraph, because two nodes should not be connected bymore than one edge. Finally, the number of recorded journeys on thecorresponding route section is associated with each edge. This isequivalent to a weighting of the corresponding edges.

To simplify the data storage, all of the data, that is to say alsoinformation about the connections (edges) and the weighting, areassociated with the nodes. Ultimately, the following information isstored for each node:

-   -   the identification number of the node;    -   the position estimation;    -   a list of all of the nodes to which the current node has an        incoming connection;    -   a list of all of the nodes to which the current node has an        outgoing connection;    -   grid indices that describe the approximate position of the node        in the map;    -   the number of recorded driving movements from this node to        subsequent nodes;    -   further application-specific parameters (for example        location-dependent power data, see above).

The grid indices in this case serve to quickly find neighboring nodeswithout having to apply the position estimations.

The first step of the map creation is a sample rate conversion of thetime-based position estimations obtained from the Kalman filter intodistance-based data. A decision chain is then run through in order todetermine the way in which these position-based data are incorporatedinto the map. Specifically, a new node may be generated when thecorresponding route section has not previously been mapped, or the dataare combined with the existing data and associated with existing nodes,specifically when a route section is traveled again.

The result is always a directed graph, all of the information in whichis always accessible. Based on the connections between the nodes, it ispossible, as described in detail below, to obtain forecasts about thefuture driving conditions.

As already mentioned, the sensor data and the GPS signals are combinedin order to obtain improved position estimations. To this end, anextended Kalman filter is used, as described for example in D. Simon,“Optimal State Estimation: Kalman, H Infinity, and NonlinearApproaches”, John Wiley & Sons, June 2006.

The filter delivers an estimation of the global position, theorientation and the speed of the vehicle at the desired time. The vectorof the state variables is defined as follows:

{right arrow over (x)}=[xyzθνδκ]^(T),

wherein x, y, z describe the global position in a Cartesian coordinatesystem (easting, northing, elevation). The orientation is denoted θ,wherein 0° denotes the north and the angle is measured clockwise fromthe north direction. The (scalar) speed is denoted ν. The two furthervariables δ, κ stand for model parameters that are not known accuratelyand are therefore determined online by the filter. The variable δ iscorrelated with the differences in the radii of the right-hand andleft-hand wheels and is used to correct the change in the direction oftravel. The variable κ stands for the wheel radius divided by thetransmission ratio, which is not known accurately and may vary overtime.

The input signals for the filter are defined as

{right arrow over (u)}=[ωϑ^(L)ϑ^(R)]^(T),

wherein ω denotes the rotational speed of the drive axle of the drivemotor and ε^(L), ϑ^(R) denote the relative speeds of the (front)left-hand and right-hand wheel, respectively.

Starting from the current state, the speed is integrated and aprediction about the position of the vehicle is generated. This is thencompared with the measured data from the GPS sensor. These areconsidered to be measured data from the Kalman filter, and thecorresponding vector is given by

{right arrow over (z)}=[{circumflex over (x)}ŷ{circumflex over(z)}{circumflex over (θ)}{circumflex over (ν)}]^(T)

The system is impacted by process noise {right arrow over (w)} andobservation noise {right arrow over (ν)}:

{right arrow over (ω)}=[∈_(ω)∈_(ν) L∈ _(θ) B∈ _(z)∈_(δ)∈_(κ)]^(T),

{right arrow over(ν)}=[∈_({circumflex over (x)})∈_(ŷ)∈_({circumflex over (z)})∈_({circumflex over (θ)})∈_(θ)]^(T),

The components of the vectors {right arrow over (w)} and {right arrowover (v)} are considered to be independent normally distributed randomvariables.

The measured signals are investigated in terms of their consistencybefore further processing. By way of example, the relative speeds onboth sides of the vehicle should be similar. Otherwise, the vehicle isskidding or the data are incorrect. In both cases, the measured signalsare not able to be expediently further processed. It may furthermore bethe case that certain sensors pre-process the measured data andtherefore distort them; electronic braking systems thus often set smallvalues of the wheel speed to zero. Since these variables are used tocalculate a change in the direction of travel of the vehicle, they haveto be corrected in order to avoid incorrect results. In the presentmethod, the relative speeds are for example both set to zero when thevalues correspond to an unrealistic state. The rotational speed of thedrive axle may however continue to be used in the model.

The verification of the satellite navigation signals is morechallenging. Depending on the device that is used, the loss of a signalconnection to a satellite may for example lead to incorrect or elsefrozen signals. Furthermore, the determined compass direction and thespeed may be impacted by strong noise at low driving speeds. Finally,interference is created by signal reflections, for example from tallbuildings. To be able to detect such errors, a plurality of validationchecks are performed. These essentially compare the signal values withthe previous values and the last position estimations. In the Kalmanfilter, the influence of the input data on the state variable isweighted using the variance of the measured data, that is to say(potentially) incorrect GPS data are provided with a high value for thevariance, such that the state vector does not adopt incorrect values.

The structure of the position estimator is illustrated in FIG. 2. Thevehicle model 10 serves to update the state variable from a time k−1 toa time k, and the signal filter 20 serves to update the measurement. Thevehicle model 10 processes the signals 12 from the vehicle sensors 11,and the signal filter 20 processes the measured data 22 from the GPSsensor 21. The result is a position estimation 30. This is stored in amemory 31 and serves as a start point for the next update of the statevariable.

The discrete-time extended Kalman filter that is used is based on thefollowing nonlinear system and measurement equations:

{right arrow over (x)} _(k) ={right arrow over (f)} _(k-1)({right arrowover (x)} _(k-1) ,{right arrow over (u)} _(k-1) {right arrow over (w)}_(k-1)) {right arrow over (w)} _(k)˜

(0,Q _(k)),

{right arrow over (y)} _(k) ={right arrow over (h)} _(k)({right arrowover (x)} _(k) ,{right arrow over (u)} _(k)) {right arrow over (u)}_(k)˜

(0,R _(k)),

wherein k and k−1 represent times. The filter is initialized with anestimation for the state and the covariance for the estimation error:

{right arrow over ({circumflex over (x)})}₀ ⁺ =E[{right arrow over (x)}₀],

P ₀ ⁺=Var({right arrow over (x)} ₀).

The recursion comprises two steps per iteration: An a-priori update ofthe state and an update of the measurement. In the first step, thesystem equations are integrated from the time of the last measurement tothe time of the next measurement, and in the second step the system islinearized by the best estimation of the state, for which purpose thefollowing matrices are required:

${F_{k - 1} = {\frac{\partial{\overset{\rightarrow}{f}}_{k - 1}}{\partial\overset{\_}{x}}❘_{{{\overset{\_}{x}}_{k - 1} = {\hat{x}}_{k - 1}^{+}},{{\overset{\sim}{\omega}}_{k - 1} = 0}}}},{L_{k - 1} = {\frac{\partial{\overset{\rightarrow}{f}}_{k - 1}}{\partial\overset{\_}{\omega}}❘_{{{\overset{\_}{x}}_{k - 1} = {\hat{x}}_{k - 1}^{+}},{{\overset{\sim}{\omega}}_{k - 1} = 0}}.}}$

The temporal update of the state estimation and the covariance of theestimation error are then:

{right arrow over (x)} _(k) ⁻ ={right arrow over (f)} _(k-1)({rightarrow over (x)} _(k-1) ⁺ ,{right arrow over (u)} _(k-1),0),

P _(k) ⁻ =F _(k-1) P _(k-1) ⁺ F _(k-1) ^(T) +L _(k-1) Q _(k-1) L _(k-1)^(T),

wherein the minus sign at the top symbolizes that the state and thevariance have been updated by the system. A plus sign at the top marksthose variables that have been adjusted by the measurements in thesecond step of the Kalman filter.

The integration and linearization are repeated, based on the sample timeof the input signal {right arrow over (u)}, until new measured data{right arrow over (z)} arrive. The measurement is then updated. To thisend, a linear model of the measurement equation is used, as follows:

${H_{k} = {\frac{\partial{\overset{\rightarrow}{h}}_{k}}{\partial\overset{\rightarrow}{x}}❘_{{{\overset{\_}{x}}_{k - 1} = {\hat{x}}_{k - 1}^{+}},{{\overset{\sim}{\omega}}_{k - 1} = 0}}}},{M_{k} = {\frac{\partial{\overset{\rightarrow}{h}}_{k}}{\partial\overset{\rightarrow}{v}}❘_{{{\overset{\_}{x}}_{k - 1} = {\hat{x}}_{k - 1}^{+}},{{\overset{\sim}{\omega}}_{k - 1} = 0}}.}}$

The new best estimation of the state and of its variance then results asfollows:

K _(k) =P _(k) ⁺ H _(k) ^(T)(H _(k) P _(k) ⁻ H _(k) ^(T) +M _(k) R _(k)M _(k) ^(T))⁻¹,

{right arrow over (x)} _(k) ⁺ ={right arrow over (x)} _(k) ⁻ +K_(k)({right arrow over (y)} _(k) −{right arrow over (h)} _(k)({rightarrow over (x)} _(k) ⁻,0)),

P _(k) ⁺=(I−K _(k) H _(k))P _(k) ⁻,

The content of the vectors and matrices is explained in the specificexample below.

The temporal change in the direction of travel may be calculated on thebasis of the relative speeds as follows:

${\overset{.}{\theta} = {\arctan\left( \frac{\vartheta^{L} - \vartheta^{R}}{l} \right)}},$

wherein / denotes the axle gauge. It has been proven that measuredsignals from the wheels of the front axle deliver better results thanthose of the rear axle. The speed of the vehicle and that of the drivemotor are linked as follows:

ν=κ·ω,

this being linked to the change in the coordinates x, y as follows:

{dot over (x)}=−ν·sin θ,

{dot over (y)}=+ν·cos θ.

This leads to the following discrete-time nonlinear equation thatdescribes the system:

${{\overset{\sim}{f}}_{k - 1} = \begin{bmatrix}{{x_{k - 1} - {v_{k - 1} \cdot {\sin\left( \theta_{k - 1} \right)} \cdot \tau_{k - 1}}}\mspace{281mu}} \\{{y_{k - 1} + {v_{k - 1} \cdot {\cos\left( \theta_{k - 1} \right)} \cdot \tau_{k - 1}}}} \\{{z_{k - 1} + \epsilon_{z}}\mspace{470mu}} \\{\theta_{k - 1} + {\tau_{k - 1} \cdot \left( {\delta_{k - 1} + {\arctan\left( \frac{v_{k - 1}^{L} + \epsilon_{0^{L}} - \theta_{k - 1}^{R} - \epsilon_{0^{R}}}{l} \right)}} \right)}} \\{{\kappa_{k - 1} \cdot \omega_{k - 1}}\mspace{455mu}} \\{\delta_{k - 1}\mspace{520mu}} \\{\kappa_{k - 1}\mspace{520mu}}\end{bmatrix}},$

wherein indicates the time interval between k−1 and k.

Since five out of seven state variables are able to be measureddirectly, the following simply results for the nonlinear measurementequation:

${\overset{\rightarrow}{h}}_{k} = {\begin{bmatrix}{{\overset{.}{x}}_{k} + \epsilon_{0}} \\{{\overset{.}{y}}_{k} + \epsilon_{0}} \\{{\hat{z}}_{k} + \epsilon_{0}} \\{{\hat{\theta}}_{k} + ɛ_{0}} \\{{\hat{v}}_{k} + \epsilon_{0}}\end{bmatrix}.}$

This gives the matrices F and L, which describe the linearized system,and the matrices H and M, which linearize the measurement equation.

As indicated above, it is assumed that the process noise {right arrowover (w)} corresponds to a multivariate normal distribution about zerowith covariance Q. It is furthermore assumed that the noise signals areindependent of one another. There thus results for Q a symmetric andpositive semidefinite diagonal matrix whose diagonal elements eachcontain the square of the standard deviation (or the variance) of thecorresponding variable. The observation noise {right arrow over (v)} iswhite noise with covariance R. There results for this a diagonal matrixR analogous to Q. This is symmetric and positively defined.

The variance of the process noise of a state variable expresses themeasure of trustworthiness of the state variable. Small valuescorrespond to a presumably correct value. Therefore, it is necessary tofind values for the variance of the model parameters δ and κ that leadto slowly changing but non-constant parameters. Although the stateestimation and the covariance of the estimation error are updated duringthe recursion, an initialization value of the state and of theuncertainty first of all has to be predefined. The values of the statevariables result directly from the signals of the navigation device. Theinitialization value for the model parameter δ is set to zero, and forthe other model parameter κ to the nominal wheel diameter divided by thetransmission ratio. The corresponding initialization values for thevariance define the diagonals of the matrix P₀, the othernon-disappearing entries describe initial cross-correlations that allowthe model parameters δ and κ to influence the associated states θ,respectively v:

$P_{0} = \begin{bmatrix}\sigma_{x_{0}}^{2} & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\0 & \sigma_{y_{0}}^{2} & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\0 & 0 & \sigma_{z_{0}}^{2} & 0 & 0 & 0 & 0 \\0 & 0 & 0 & \sigma_{g_{0}}^{2} & 0 & \sigma_{g_{0}x_{0}}^{2} & 0 \\0 & 0 & 0 & 0 & \sigma_{x_{0}}^{2} & 0 & \sigma_{\phi_{0}x_{0}}^{2} \\0 & 0 & 0 & \sigma_{v_{0}\kappa_{0}}^{2} & 0 & \sigma_{b_{0}}^{2} & 0 \\0 & 0 & 0 & 0 & \sigma_{b_{0}x_{0}}^{2} & 0 & \sigma_{b_{0}}^{2}\end{bmatrix}$

As mentioned above, the map is depicted by a directed digraph. Theinformation used to create the map is generated on a time basis and isaccordingly also initially available as a function of time. Time-baseddata are however poorly suited to consolidating data from a plurality ofjourneys on the same route with different driving patterns. Therefore,the time-dependent position estimations generated by the Kalman filterare converted into (spatially) equidistant data in a conversion process(resampling). The data points are generated at equal distances along thetrajectory of each journey on the route. This gives high flexibility anda constant resolution. The generation of an unnecessarily large numberof nodes in route sections that are traveled through slowly or when thevehicle is stationary is avoided.

Starting from a new, empty map, the first position estimation is addedthereto as first node. The sequence illustrated in FIG. 3 then results.This figure is a flowchart of the resampling method, starting from a newposition estimation 101. First of all, the distance from the lastvisited node is determined (step 102). If the distance is less than thesample distance (decision 103), the position estimation 101 is added toa buffer (step 104). If the vehicle is stationary, this buffer is filledwith new position estimations with which various sensor signals areassociated, for example in relation to the vehicle weight or therequired power of additional systems.

If the distance is greater than the sample distance, it is checkedwhether the buffer is empty (decision 105). If this is the case (forexample when driving quickly), long distances are interpolated (step106), giving a series of position estimations 107, for example along astraight line between the last visited node and the position estimation.A value of 1 m is predefined for example as distance between neighboringnodes. These position estimations 107 of the sequence are then insertedinto the map (step 108). If the buffer already contains data, these areaveraged in order to reduce the statistical error (step 109), and so anaverage position estimation 110 is obtained, and the buffer is emptied(step 111). Finally, the average position estimation 110 is integratedinto the last visited node (step 112). Therefore, if the previouslystationary vehicle drives off, after the sample distance is reached, thedata in the buffer are averaged and stored in the last visited node.

The integration of the data includes not just the adjustment of theapplication-specific parameters, but rather specifically also theposition of the node and of course the number of recorded vehiclemovements.

When incorporating new position estimations into the map, a distinctionis in principle drawn between two cases:

-   a) The position estimation belongs to a route section that has    already been traveled previously and is mapped in the map;-   b) The position estimation belongs to a route section being traveled    for the first time and not previously mapped.

In the second case, the new position estimation is inserted as node andlinked to the last visited node. In the first case, the new data have tobe appropriately combined with the data of the existing nodes. To thisend, the correct existing nodes have to be identified.

This identification process is described below. It is based both on theglobal position and on the orientation of the vehicle. Those nodes aredetermined that are located close to the current position estimation andwith which a similar vehicle orientation is associated. In view of theaccuracy of usual navigation devices, a plurality of series ofmeasurements on the same route may deliver trajectories that deviatefrom one another by up to 10 m. Since the sample distance generally hasto be selected so as to be smaller, it is not expedient to link the newposition estimations to all of the nodes that have a distance of lessthan 10 m, as this would reduce the number of nodes and thus lead todata loss. To obtain the resolution of the map data, there has to be aselection of candidates to which the information should be linked.Starting from a number of nodes that surround the given positionestimation, the following is performed for this purpose:

-   1. Identify surrounding nodes: The surrounding nodes may be easily    identified using the grid indices described further above, for    example all the nodes in a region having an extent of 50 m×50 m    around the given position estimation.-   2. Remove the trace: If a new route section is being traveled, the    last visited (previous) node is excluded from the further    processing. Data that belong to the new route section being combined    with the last visited node is thereby avoided. This step is omitted    if the vehicle is situated on a route section that is already    mapped.-   3. Orientation filter: The new position estimation should only be    linked to those nodes with which a similar orientation is    associated. A distinction may thus in particular be drawn between    the two directions of travel. This furthermore gives an improved    resolution of crossings or branches. By way of example, all nodes    whose orientation deviates from that of the position estimation by    more than 20° are omitted from consideration.-   4. Identify the nearest nodes: From the remaining nodes, the one    nearest the new position estimation is selected. If the    corresponding distance is less than 10 m, a reference to this node    is stored. Independently of this, the set of remaining nodes is    reduced by this node and by the entire chain of nodes that lead to    this node or proceed onward from this node. This ensures that only a    single node of each independent trajectory is combined with the new    position estimation. If nodes still remain after this procedure, the    steps of storing the reference of the nearest node and of removing    the trajectory are repeated until no nodes are left.-   5. Add or combine nodes: If the previous step has given one or more    references, these are combined with the current position estimation    to form a single node. If not, a new node is generated with the    position estimation and added to the map. This node is then the last    visited node for the further processing.

If the new position estimations give a trajectory that runs at adistance from an existing sequence of nodes that correspondsapproximately to the threshold value for combination with existingnodes, bypasses may arise that do not represent the actual situation.For these cases, the map that is formed is corrected by the sequence ofsteps described below:

-   6. Remove short bypasses: Short bypasses are involved when two    branches spaced apart from one another by less than a predefinable    maximum distance lead to a parallel profile of two sequences of    nodes, wherein the corresponding route sections comply with a    certain maximum distance. First of all, a distinction is drawn    between main and secondary branch portions of the route, the main    branch portion being considered to be that sequence of nodes that    corresponds to the shortest travel route. The nodes of the other    sequence(s) are then combined with those of the main branch portion,    a combination with the spatially nearest node being performed in    each case. In this case, as normal, all of the recorded data are    combined with those of the nodes of the main branch portion.-   7. Correct incorrect connections: The directions of travel    associated with the individual nodes are in principle independent of    one another. However, if they deviate from one another for example    by more than 90°, this suggests an incorrect connection between the    nodes. The corresponding nodes and connections are corrected.-   8. Combine surrounding nodes: Nodes that are close to one another    are combined with one another if the associated directions of travel    essentially match (for example do not deviate from one another by    more than 20°).-   9. Smooth the trajectory: Measurement inaccuracies give sequences of    nodes that clearly do not represent the true route profile and for    example have a jagged shape. This is able to be removed by smoothing    the trajectory. To this end, consideration is given to a sequence of    nodes having a predefined length. The average curvature in this    sequence is determined, and the positions of the nodes in the    sequence are corrected such that an essentially smooth profile    results.-   10. Divide long edges: Edges between two neighboring nodes that    exceed a particular maximum length are divided into several edges,    that is to say additional nodes are interpolated and inserted    between the neighboring nodes.

In sections that run in tunnels, where no satellite navigation data areavailable, an additional correction is performed. This is explained inconnection with FIGS. 4A, 4B. Position determination based solely onvehicle sensors will diverge from the true route profile as the traveldistance increases, which, when leaving a tunnel, generally leads to thecalculated position deviating significantly from the position nowdetermined again through satellite navigation. When leaving a tunnel,this therefore results in a jump in the map that is generated. This iscorrected as follows:

The position estimations generated in the tunnel solely on the basis ofthe signals from the vehicle sensors are not added to existing nodes,but rather first of all treated as a new route. When a satellitenavigation signal is then received again, these new nodes are corrected.The nodes are then where possible combined with the existing nodes, inthe same way as for the method steps described above.

To correct the new nodes, these and the connecting edges are consideredas a mass-spring system, the nodes representing the mass points. Eachmass is connected to the neighboring masses by rigid connecting rodsfastened thereto in an articulated manner (similarly to in a doublependulum). In addition, torsion springs are arranged on the ends of theconnecting rods in the case of each mass. The springs are tension-freewhen the nodes are situated in the uncorrected positions. A virtualadditional node is generated at the end of the mass-spring chain. Thisadditional node is then moved to the position of the adjoining node,which was again determined, inter alia, by way of satellite navigation.The resultant state of equilibrium of the mass-spring chain thencorresponds to the corrected profile of the trajectory. If the routesection is already mapped by nodes from earlier journeys, the correctednodes may now be combined with the existing nodes.

When combining position data from a plurality of journeys on the route,it is necessary not only to combine the positions themselves, forexample by determining averages, possibly weighted averages. Since thestate observer for each state variable delivers a measure of theuncertainty, this information should also be incorporated into the map.This applies not only to the geographical data but also to otherapplication-specific data that are incorporated into the map.Information about the standard deviations delivers an indication aboutthe probability that similar conditions should be expected in multiplejourneys on the route, whether for example a route section is alwayspresumably traveled at roughly the same speed or whether this deviatesgreatly from journey to journey. This information may be highly usefulwhen making predictions.

The data to be combined are described as normally distributed signalssince predictions are made possible due to the data stored in the map ina simple manner and without decision procedures. Two such signals may becombined with one another as described below.

The normal distribution of a variable X with average μ and variance σ²is a static distribution with the following probability densityfunction:

${\varphi\left( {x,\mu,\sigma} \right)} = {\frac{1}{\sigma\sqrt{2\pi}}{e^{- \frac{{({x - \mu})}^{2}}{2\sigma^{2}}}.}}$

Starting from a probability density function f(x) of a continuous randomvariable X, the expected value and the variance are given as follows:

E[X]=μ_(x)=∫_(−∞) ^(∞) xf(x)dx,

Var(X)=σ_(x) ²=∫_(−∞) ^(∞)(x−μ _(x))² ·f(x)dx.

For discrete random variables, the expected value is simply the averageof the individual samples:

$\mu_{Y} = {\frac{1}{n}{\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n}\;{y_{i}.}}}$

If an additional sample is added, this gives a new expected value:

${\overset{\_}{\mu}}_{Y} = {{\frac{1}{n + 1}{\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n + 1}\; y_{i}}} = {{{\frac{1}{n + 1}{\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n}\; y_{i}}} + {\frac{1}{n + 1}y_{n + 1}}} = {\frac{{n\mspace{14mu}\mu_{Y}} + y_{n + 1}}{n + 1}.}}}$

A similar situation applies for the variance, which, for discrete randomvariables, is defined as follows:

$\sigma_{Y}^{2} = {{\frac{1}{n}{\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n}\;\left( {y_{i} - \mu_{Y}} \right)^{2}}} = {\left( {\frac{1}{n}{\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n}\; y_{i}^{2}}} \right) - {\mu_{Y}^{2}.}}}$

For an additional sample, the following results for the variance:

$\begin{matrix}{{{\hat{\sigma}}_{Y}^{2} = {\frac{1}{n + 1}{\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n + 1}\;\left( {y_{i} - {\overset{\sim}{\mu}}_{Y}} \right)^{2}}}},} \\{{= {\left( {\frac{1}{n + 1}{\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n + 1}\; y_{i}^{2}}} \right) - \left( {\frac{1}{n + 1}{\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n + 1}\; y_{i}}} \right)}},} \\{{= {{\frac{1}{n + 1}\left( {{\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n}\; y_{i}^{2}} + y_{n + 1}^{2}} \right)} - {\frac{1}{\left( {n + 1} \right)^{2}}\left( {{\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{n}\; y_{i}} + y_{n + 1}} \right)^{2}}}},}\end{matrix}$

wherein we are able to use the above definitions for the expected valueand the variance in order to ultimately obtain the following:

${\overset{\_}{\sigma}}_{Y}^{2} = {\frac{n\mspace{14mu}\sigma_{Y}^{2}}{n + 1} + {\frac{{n\left( {y_{n + 1} - \mu_{Y}} \right)}^{2}}{\left( {n + 1} \right)^{2}}.}}$

Only three variables μ_(Y), σ_(Y) and n are thus required to update theexpected value and the variance when new samples are present.

One property of the map is the possibility to reduce data when takinginto consideration a plurality of journeys on the same route. Whencombining two previously averaged paths that describe the same route,the following normal distributions are assumed:

${{\varphi\left( {x,\mu_{1},\sigma_{1}} \right)} = {\frac{1}{\sigma_{1}\sqrt{2\pi}}e^{- \frac{{({x - \mu_{1}})}^{2}}{2\sigma_{1}^{2}}}}},{{\varphi\left( {x,\mu_{2},\sigma_{2}} \right)} = {\frac{1}{\sigma_{2}\sqrt{2\pi}}{e^{- \frac{{({x - \mu_{2}})}^{2}}{2\sigma_{2}^{2}}}.}}}$

The distribution of the combination, that is to say the sum of theprobability densities, is generally not normally distributed. It ishowever advantageous, for the reasons given above, also to approximatethe combination again through a normal distribution. The abovedefinitions of expected value and variance give

$\begin{matrix}{\overset{\_}{\mu} = {\frac{1}{2}{\int_{- \infty}^{\infty}{{x\left( {{\varphi\left( {x,\mu_{1},\sigma_{1}} \right)} + {\varphi\left( {x,\mu_{2},\sigma_{2}} \right)}} \right)}{dx}}}}} \\{{= {\frac{1}{2}\left( {\mu_{1} + \mu_{2}} \right)}},}\end{matrix}$ $\begin{matrix}{{\hat{\sigma}}^{2} = {\frac{1}{2}{\int_{- \infty}^{\infty}{{\left( {x - \overset{\sim}{\mu}} \right)^{2} \cdot \left( {{\varphi\left( {x,\mu_{1},\sigma_{1}} \right)} + {\varphi\left( {x,\mu_{2},\sigma_{2}} \right)}} \right)}{dx}}}}} \\{= {{\frac{1}{2}\left( {\sigma_{1}^{2} + \sigma_{2}^{2}} \right)} + {\frac{1}{4}{\left( {\mu_{1} - \mu_{2}} \right)^{2}.}}}}\end{matrix}$

Applied generally to combinations of N normal distributions that areweighted with weights n_(i), this gives:

${\overset{\sim}{\mu} = \frac{\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{N}\;{n_{i} \cdot \mu_{i}}}{\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{N}\; n_{i}}},{{\overset{\sim}{\sigma}}^{2} = {\frac{\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{N}\;{n_{i} \cdot \sigma_{i}^{2}}}{\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{N}\; n_{i}} + \frac{\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{N}\;{\sum\limits_{i = j}^{N}\;{{\left( {\mu_{j} - \mu_{k}} \right)^{2} \cdot n_{j}}n_{k}}}}{\left( {\sum\limits_{i = 1}^{N}\; n_{i}} \right)^{2}}}},$

by way of which the normal distribution of the combination ischaracterized.

To now be able to predict future driving conditions on the basis of themap, a current position estimation is started from. This serves asstarting point for the estimation, but is also (subsequently)incorporated into the map in order to update it. The prediction isdescribed using the output of data that are directly correlated with thefuture energy requirement, specifically an elevation profile h. Themethod is however readily transferred to the prediction of furtherparameter profiles.

The example is illustrated graphically in FIG. 5, wherein it should beobserved that the algorithm is based on the covered route, which is notcompletely consistent with the illustration in FIG. 5. Although theabscissa is denoted by the journey distances, it is in reality just thenorth coordinate of the node. It is furthermore assumed that theillustrated map section is static. This does not apply in the actualcase because the map changes dynamically when the route is traveledagain.

The first illustration a) in FIG. 5 shows a map section in which theglobal positions of the nodes are depicted using north and eastcoordinates n, e. We now consider a series of nodes along the lowerbranch portion, the intention being to predict the future elevationprofile starting from the node on the far left. The second illustrationb) in FIG. 5 shows the elevation profiles stored in the map individuallyfor the three branch portions of the map section: for the sake ofsimplicity, the series of curves from the top downward corresponds tothe series of branch portions in illustration a). Since two branches andtherefore three branch portions are present, it is first of allnecessary to take an average in order to allow a prediction about thefuture profile. The result of this averaging of the elevation profilesin a prediction range up to a maximum distance of d_(pred,max) isrecorded in illustration c) of FIG. 5. This prediction, once calculated,is then used when traveling the route again (illustration d)), until aminimum prediction distance d_(pred,min) is achieved. This is the casein illustration e) of FIG. 5. A new prediction is then required thatagain covers a distance of d_(pred,max). The node from which thisprediction is intended to be calculated is situated at the beginning ofa branch portion, directly after the first branch. Incorrectassociations of branch portions are not unlikely precisely at suchpoints—in fact, the determined position in the example shown isassociated with the north branch portion (upper branch portion inillustration a)), rather than correctly with the south branch portion(middle or lower branch portion in illustration a)).

If a prediction were then to be created starting from the current node,it would incorrectly reflect the future driving conditions—theultimately correct branch portion would not even be taken intoconsideration. For this reason, when a prediction is made starting froma position that is situated within a predefined distance after a branch(lightly marked node in FIG. 5) a node is started from that is situatedbefore the branch in front (that is to say for example the node at whichthe path branches). This prediction is illustrated in illustration f) ofFIG. 5. It still incorporates all three branch portions, and thereforealso the correct south branch portion. The same sequence again results.As soon as a node is reached that is sufficiently far from a previousbranch, anew prediction is generated, even if the minimum predictiondistance d_(pred,min) has not yet been reached. This is the case in theillustrated example in illustration h).

It is possible in principle to connect the map algorithm to thenavigation assistance system of a vehicle. If for example the driverenters his destination and the navigation assistance system calculates aroute, the map algorithm could use these route points to improve theprediction. This is helpful in particular if the map contains manycrossings and branches—the averaging over a plurality of possible branchportions may thus be dispensed with, and in each case that branchportion that has a high probability of being traveled is taken intoconsideration. In addition to an improved prediction capability, theprediction has to be updated far less often, since the node sequence isknown beforehand. The self-learning map is in no way replaced thereby,since the navigation assistance system is not able to deliver the samedriver-specific and vehicle-specific data set.

In the case of use in public means of transport, the combination ofself-learning map and a driver assistance system is even simpler. If thedriver indicates the current bus route, this information may beintrinsically built into the map, such that, in a prediction of futuredriving conditions, the map parameters are already clearly assigned tothe route and are therefore able to be retrieved unambiguously.

The map that is generated and the method for making predictions are ableto be used in particular in the context of a road-based public means oftransport, for example a battery-operated or hybrid bus. They are ableto be used for example in the context of energy management, as describedin the dissertation by P. Elbert, “Noncausal and Causal OptimizationStrategies for Hybrid Electric Vehicles”, Diss. ETH No. 21522,Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule [Swiss Federal Institute ofTechnology], Zurich, May 2013. This applies a stochastic depiction ofdriving behavior in order to achieve optimum energy-saving control of ahybrid bus. A conventional charge controller is not able to predictfuture energy consumption, for example due to topography, and thereforehas to maintain a relatively high state of charge in order to be able tomanage possible inclines. This may result in a situation whereby, on asubsequent slope, the actually available energy is not able to berecovered. If a prediction is now available, the state of charge is ableto be controlled such that the maximum recovered energy is able to bebuffer-stored. The map according to the invention may form the basis forsuch a prediction. On the basis of the map, the drive power and thevehicle speed are able to predicted, for example. On the basis of thesevariables, charge control may then take place.

The invention is not restricted to the illustrated exemplary embodiment.It may for example be advantageous for not only the abovementioned GPSdata to be incorporated into the evaluation, but rather alsoadditionally estimations from the GPS receiver about an accuracy of theGPS data. Such values, which are known as “dilution of precision” values(DOP values), may be used to improve the position estimation.

In addition to the GPS receiver and said sensors, a sensor for moreaccurately establishing the elevation may additionally be used—the GPSreceiver often delivers only inaccurate results in relation to thisparameter. Precise knowledge about the elevation facilitates thecreation of the map at locations where a plurality of routes intersectat different elevations.

In the abovementioned method, modeling the map parameters as normallydistributed variables is the most drastic simplification. This leads forexample to a situation whereby different types of journey on a routesection (for example at peak times in comparison with off-peak timeswith little traffic) are not specifically recorded; only the averages ofthe individual variables and the corresponding standard deviations areknown. Approximation through normal distributions leads to a significantreduction in the data to be processed and to a simplification in theprocessing and the making of predictions. It is however conceivable forthe gathered data to be represented differently. By way of example,instead of a single normal distribution per signal, a plurality ofnormal distributions could be recorded, these representing the variableson different days of the week, at different times of day and/or duringdifferent seasons. In addition, older results that are outdated and areno longer relevant should automatically be forgotten by the mapalgorithm. The map thereby remains dynamic and therefore mirrors actualreality. From a technical point of view, this means that a certainnumber of data points per map parameter are stored, and the oldest dataare replaced by new data. In order at the same time to give the newerdata a higher weighting, what is known as a forgetting factor may beused. Thus, for example, a weighted sum, a weighted average, or aweighted standard deviation of a normal distribution may be calculated.In the context of the invention, however, completely differentdepictions of the map parameters are also possible.

The described method is capable in principle of integrating informationfrom different vehicles into the same map at the same time and in realtime. This allows quicker creation of a map and faster updating—andtherefore also predictions that are based on the current circumstancesin the traffic network. This works readily if the data relate tovehicles that are spaced a distance apart from one another. If data fromvehicles situated near one another have to be integrated, measures thatare known per se for memory protection should be taken to avoidconflicts arising.

In summary, it should be noted that the invention provides a method thatallows a reliable prediction of future driving conditions for a vehicle.

1. A method for predicting future driving conditions for a vehicle,comprising the following steps: a) gathering time-dependent sensor datafrom sensors on board the vehicle while the vehicle is traveling on aroute; b) determining a time-dependent position of the vehicle; c)associating the gathered time-dependent data with the determinedtime-dependent vehicle position; d) converting the time-dependentassociated data into spatially equidistant associated data and creatinga map depending on the spatially equidistant associated data; e)traveling the route again, the map being updated in real time dependingon time-dependent associated data from the repeated traveling; f)obtaining a prediction of future driving conditions when traveling theroute again, based on the determined vehicle position and the map,wherein the map is depicted by a directed graph, wherein convertedtime-dependent associated data are assigned to each node of the graph;depending on the determined vehicle position and the map, a predictionof future location-dependent parameters on the traveled route is made,wherein the prediction is made starting from a node of the directedgraph that corresponds to the determined vehicle position; and theprediction extends over a prediction range that covers a multiplicity ofnodes of the directed graph, wherein, in the event that the predictionrange extends beyond a branch of the directed graph, nodes of aplurality of branch portions adjoining the branch are taken intoconsideration to make the prediction.
 2. The method as claimed in claim1, wherein a new prediction is made only when the prediction range of aprediction that has already been made does not cover at least a minimumroute section starting from the determined vehicle position and in thatotherwise a prediction that has already been made continues to be used.3. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein a new prediction is madestarting from a node that is situated before a branch in the directedgraph if the node corresponding to the determined vehicle position issituated in a predefined distance range after the branch.
 4. The methodas claimed in claim 1, the map comprising location-dependent power data.5. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein updating the map comprisesconsolidating data from various journeys on the route.
 6. The method asclaimed in claim 1, wherein the gathered sensor data compriseslocation-relevant information, and wherein the gathered data and datafrom a global positioning system for determining the vehicle positionare combined.
 7. The method as claimed in claim 6, wherein the gatheredsensor data and data from the global positioning system for determiningthe vehicle position are combined by way of a Kalman filter.
 8. Themethod as claimed in claim 1, the associated data comprising a vehicleorientation and a vehicle speed.
 9. The method as claimed in claim 7,wherein the sensor data comprises speeds of a right-hand wheel and of aleft-hand wheel, and wherein a rate of change of the vehicle orientationis calculated from the speeds.
 10. The method as claimed in claim 1,wherein for each new set of associated data, depending on a distancefrom a last visited node of the graph and on content of a data buffer,it is determined whether the set of associated data is added to the databuffer, whether the set of associated data is added to the last visitednode, or whether new nodes are generated.
 11. The method as claimed inclaim 10, wherein, when a predefined maximum distance from the lastvisited node is exceeded, at least two new nodes are generated, whereina set of interpolated data is associated with a first of the at leasttwo new nodes.
 12. A method for controlling a vehicle, wherein thecontrol is performed using a map that has been generated by a method asclaimed in claim
 1. 13. The method as claimed in claim 12, wherein thevehicle is a trolleybus having a storage battery for the buffer storageof electrical energy.
 14. The method as claimed in claim 12, wherein thecontrol of the vehicle comprises automatically switching a transmissionand/or outputting driver assistance information.
 15. The method asclaimed in claim 8, wherein the sensor data comprises speeds of aright-hand wheel and of a left-hand wheel, and wherein a rate of changeof the vehicle orientation is calculated from the speeds.